whether the stock market could see big to consider three questions

The Red week (blog, Twitter) contributing Jing Xiaoyun recently a lot of people are concerned about stock markets see big problems, whether the stock market could see big to consider three questions: 1 the old republic power leveling, inflation pressures and monetary tightening problems; 2, on the economic growth cycle; 3, market valuation problems. Current downward trend in inflation has been moreClear, but because of the high comparison base this year, data next year will fall on the display, but the actual price level is low not to go. But for sure is that monetary tightening has come to an end. Recommended reading hexun about City Hall: next week's a-shares or to five major gold stocks are now buying opportunity in consumption will burn at the passion 8 zhanchiyufei muddy water and focus: Who black has who sets are can't wait large shareholders discovered food Lee 8 family a 12 years fuck disc hand of 8 section to deep investment feeling IPO Meng Yu Tiger 29 months "ring" go near trillion [micro-Bo] old Sha: push international plate Qian will do a thing [Unit 's] next week a unit or large area fell stopped (figure) economic growth does is maximum concerns. Growth in domestic economic indicatorsAn easing trend, manufacturing industry in particular. If monetary easing was not obvious, real estate sales are falling, sharp slowdown in economic growth is inevitable, because of real estate "kidnapped" too much of the industry. Conversely, if monetary policy relaxed substantially, then real estate regulation will have no effect, prices will continue to rise, inflation increased again and eventually wounded must be people.Which is more heavy, depends on the Central lie, and how policy, nor I can decide that only the tiller. Valuation swtor power leveling, apart from banks and a small amount of property stocks, most stocks remain cheap. But overall, the shares were valued at the bottom of what should be? A reliable ruler-social real interest rates. According to the current corporate bondsYield is calculated, this rate should be at about 6%, which yields on financing products is 6%~7%, then such a measure, a-shares overall reasonable PE should be 14~16 times. But it should give a reasonable PE, taking into account market often excessive fall, investors would need additional plus the margin of safety of one-third, about 8%~9%. Then, sharePrice/earnings ratio should be at the bottom of the market in 11~12.5 times. Or in short, the index of 2,400 points correspond to the value has been entered in a reasonable range, has a margin of safety to distance may continue to fall at the bottom of 15%.